R0 won't do what you tell it to
the journal of Michael Werneburg
twenty-eight years and a million words
Kawasaki, 2020.06.01
Just in time, the R0 value in Japan is going up again. It was around 0.3 - 0.4 for a long while, meaning that the virus was only being transmitted to 0.3 or 0.4 people per person already infected. As far as outbreaks go, that's right where you want it. But then in a matter of days it climbed to 1.35 and then 1.8. Which means that every infected person is passing it on to nearly two people. Exponential growth!
I say "just in time" because Japan just lifted the state of emergency.
Further to that, I'm supposed to get ¥100,000 from the government (about $CA1,300). It's basically a mid-year tax rebate, and I'm a bit annoyed that it's come to this.