• ⇤
• ⇽
• ≡
• ⇾
• ⇥

slippage in our PR application

the journal of Michael Werneburg

twenty-seven years and one million words

I've been watching a certain webpage on the CIC website that shows where my application for Mari's PR approval might sit.

When my application was received on April 7, the lead time on the first, smallest portion (approving me as a sponsor) was at 38 days. At that time, it appeared that the number of days remaining (y) in the first portion of the approval process was a simple count-down from 38 days, as follows:

y = 38 - (x * 5/7)

(5/7 counts only business days)

The '0' day should have been 53 days or ~ May 30.

But since April 7 (21 days ago) the number of days reported on the website has gradually risen to 44 days. That's an increase of 6 days (I presume they mean business days) over the course of 21 days. So the formula is now:

y = 38 - (x * 5/7) + (x*6/21)

Fie on complexity! At least it's not asymptotal. I can also express this as:

y = 38 - (x * 9/21)

'0' day now takes 88 days to arrive, or July 4, 2011.