black mountain bikes get stolen a lot in Toronto

Toronto, 2017.11.28

According to an article that features my cycling advocacy non-profit, it turns out that black mountain bikes are the most stolen bikes in the city. I mentioned it – and my reflexive thought to have the kids repaint my beater, which is a black mountain bike – to a mechanic in a bike shop. He pointed out that that was likely because black mountain bikes are the most common bikes.

From that, you deduce that I'd fallen into the base rate fallacy, despite my risk training. Rats!

But I still want to coat my bike in something reflective. Perhaps retro-reflective microspheres mixed into some clearcoat. Or perhaps some reflective tape.

Anyway, here's the article.

Three reasons to be thankful:

  1. My "main" bike's not black.
  2. I understand the base rate fallacy, derp.
  3. I'd still like to paint my beater.

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